Singapore Residential Market Sees Strong Rebound in 4Q 2024 with Record Launches and Highest Transaction Volume Since 2021

Singapore Residential Market Sees Strong Rebound in 4Q 2024 with Record Launches and Highest Transaction Volume Since 2021

The Singapore residential market rebounded strongly in 4Q 2024, with private property prices rising by 2.3%, driven by record launches and heightened demand post-interest rate cuts. Transaction volumes surged 38.4% to 7,433 units, the highest since 2021. The Outside Central Region (OCR) led price gains at 3.5%, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) at 3.0% and Core Central Region (CCR) at 2.6%. Developers launched 3,425 units, with Emerald of Katong, Chuan Park, and Lentor Mansion being top sellers. Resale volumes dipped 4.1%, while rents remained stable. Singaporeans dominated purchases at 86.1%, with foreigners at 1.2%. The 2025 outlook predicts 23 launches with 12,393 units, signaling continued growth.

RESIDENTIAL DATA ANALYTICS UPDATES 4Q 2024

GENERAL MARKET:

The private residential market rebounded by 2.3% in 4Q 2024 after the surprising fall of 0.7% in 3Q 2024.

For 2024, private property prices were up by 3.9%, a more stable and sustainable growth compared to the previous year’s 6.8%.

The Outside Central Region (OCR) led the price gains in 4Q 2024, up by 3.5%, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR)’s 3.0%. Prices in the Core Central Region recovered by 2.6% in 4Q 2024 while landed home prices displayed signs of bottoming.

The drop in prices in 3Q 2024, three interest rate cuts by the US Fed from Sep 2024 and seven launches in Oct and Nov 2024 pulled buyers back into the market.

Transaction volume was higher by 38.4% in 4Q 2024 to 7,433 units, compared to 5,372 units in 3Q 2024. It is the highest 4Q transaction volume since 2021 and the first time since 4Q 2021 that quarterly transaction volume crossed 7,000 units.

DEVELOPER SALES：

A record number of launches was pushed out in the last quarter of 2024.

There were seven launches in 4Q 2024 with five of them taking place in the month of Nov 2024. It is the first time since Nov 2019 that the market saw five launches happening in a month. Developers launched 3,425 units in 4Q 2024, 166.7% higher than the previous quarter.

Developers wanted to catch the positive wave of demand sweeping through the market after the Lunar Seventh Month.

The seven major non-landed project launches in 4Q 2024 – Chuan Park, Emerald of Katong, Meyer Blue, Nava Grove, Norwood Grand, The Collective at One Sophia and Union Square Residences collected more than 8,500 cheques in total.

3,420 units were sold in 4Q 2024, 194.8% higher than the previous quarter. It is the highest quarterly sales since 3Q 2021 and the highest 4Q sales volume since 2012.

In 2024, a total of 6,469 units were sold, similar to 2023’s 6,421 units.

The top 3 best-selling projects in 2024 are Emerald of Katong, Chuan Park and Lentor Mansion.

Emerald of Katong in District 15 emerged as the best-selling project in 2024, selling more than 99% of its 846-units. Buyers who could not secure a unit in Emerald of Katong combed the surrounding area for alternatives. Grand Dunman, Tembusu Grand and The Continuum were the key beneficiaries from the spillover demand.

Chuan Park was the next top selling project in 2024, moving 720 units. The highly anticipated project in 14 years in Lorong Chuan which enjoys doorstep access to Lorong Chuan MRT station saw overwhelming interest during the preview.

The third best-selling project was Lentor Mansion with more than 400 units sold in 2024. The first project launch under the new harmonisation rules charmed buyers with their efficient layouts.

RESALE MARKET:

The seven launches and the lower interest rates pulled buyers away from the resale market in 4Q 2024. Buyers took advantage of the lower interest rates which gave them a bigger loan quantum to buy a new home.

Transaction volume in 4Q 2024 was 3,702 units, 4.1% lower quarter-on-quarter while prices edged up 1.3%.

RENTS:

Rents of private residential properties was unchanged in 4Q 2024 due to slightly more supply of completed units for rent.

3,062 private residential units were completed in 4Q 2024, 14.7% higher than 3Q 2024.

There may be firmer demand in the months ahead from an improving employment market. The estimated supply of completed private homes in 2025 is expected to be lower than 2024 at 5,348 units. On balance, rents of private homes might rise between 2% and 4% in 2025.

BUYER’S PROFILE:

Singaporeans and Permanent Residents made up 98.4% of purchases of private residential properties while foreigners made up 1.2% in 4Q 2024.

More than 90% of the units in the projects launched for sale in 4Q 2024 were sold to Singaporeans. Thus, that pushed up the proportion of Singaporeans buying private residential properties to 86.1% in 4Q 2024 compared to 82.9% in 3Q 2024.

With more launches in the CCR in 2025, the proportion of Singaporean buyers should hover around 85%.

The top five nationalities purchasing residential property in Singapore in 4Q 2024 are China, Malaysia, India, USA and Indonesia.

24.8% of the transactions in 4Q 2024 are priced below $1.5 million, 27.2% are between $1.5 million to less than $2 million and 17.1% between $2 million to less than $2.5 million.

The highest value non-landed unit was a 5,802 sq ft unit at Eden Residences Capitol sold for $19.75 million to a Permanent Resident.

EXECUTIVE CONDOMINIUMS:

A second executive condominium (EC) project, Novo Place was launched for sale in 4Q 2024.

This is the second EC launch in Tengah after Copen Grand and one of the few EC projects that is within a 5 mins’ walk to a MRT station.

Novo Place sold 445 units or 88.3% in 4Q 2024, making it the best-selling EC in 2024.

The new EC market gives buyers the option of a deferred payment scheme not available elsewhere. This allows buyers to lock in their choice unit first and service the loan later. It eases the finances for HDB upgraders who still have an outstanding loan for their flat.

Another advantage of buying a new EC is that HDB upgraders are given upfront remission on the ABSD. They can continue to stay in their existing flat and sell it within 6 months of collecting keys to their new EC unit.

Including ECs, developers launched 3,929 units and sold 3,948 units in 4Q 2024.

MARKET OUTLOOK:

In 2025, there may be 23 launches with an estimated 12,393 units. This includes two EC launches, Aurelle of Tampines and one EC at Plantation Close.

There may be up to 2,775 units launched in the CCR. Some of the potential major launches include Aurea, Holland Drive, W Residences Singapore – Marina View, Orchard Boulevard, RiverGreen and The Robertson Opus.

The RCR may see potential major launches like Arina East Residences, Bloomsbury Residences, De Souza Avenue, Margaret Drive, One Marina Gardens, Lyndenwoods, The Orie, Zion Road (Parcel A) and Zion Road (Parcel B) in 2025, making up a total of 4,649 units.

Some of the potential major launches in the OCR include Bagnall Haus, Canberra Crescent, ELTA, Lentor Central Residences, Parktown Residence and Upper Thomson Road (Parcel B). This adds up to 3,601 units in 2025.

The phenomenal sales momentum in Nov 2024 continued for the first two launches in 2025. The take-up of the two projects, Bagnall Haus and The Orie were strong, a sharp contrast to a year ago.

Given the recent interest rate developments in the US, there may not be much scope for local interest rates to trend lower in 2025.

Developers are estimated to sell between 7,000 and 8,000 units in 2025 on the back of improved sales sentiments.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, prices in the property market are estimated to grow between 4% and 7% in 2025.

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Singapore Residential Market Sees Strong Rebound in 4Q 2024: A Comprehensive Overview

Singapore’s private residential market bounced back in the fourth quarter of 2024, defying expectations with a 2.3% price increase after a 0.7% dip in the previous quarter. This recovery underscores a return to stability, with annual price growth for 2024 settling at 3.9%, reflecting a more sustainable pace compared to the 6.8% surge in 2023. The Outside Central Region (OCR) led the charge with a 3.5% price gain, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) at 3.0%, while the Core Central Region (CCR) saw a 2.6% rebound. Notably, landed home prices showed signs of stabilizing, hinting at a potential market bottom.

Developer Sales Soar to New Heights

The quarter witnessed a flurry of activity with seven major launches, five of which debuted in November alone—a first since November 2019. Developers launched 3,425 units, a staggering 166.7% increase from the previous quarter. This strategy to capitalize on post-Lunar Seventh Month demand paid off, with sales skyrocketing 194.8% to 3,420 units, marking the highest quarterly sales since 3Q 2021 and the strongest 4Q performance since 2012. For the full year, 6,469 units were sold, closely mirroring 2023’s figures.

Top-Selling Projects Shine

Emerald of Katong emerged as the best-selling project in 2024, with an impressive 99% of its 846 units sold. Spillover demand from this project benefited nearby developments like Grand Dunman, Tembusu Grand, and The Continuum. Chuan Park followed, selling 720 units, while Lentor Mansion rounded out the top three with over 400 units sold, thanks to its efficient layouts under new harmonization rules.

Resale Market Feels the Pinch

The resale market felt the heat as buyers gravitated toward new launches and lower interest rates. Transaction volumes dipped 4.1% to 3,702 units, though prices edged up 1.3%, indicating resilience despite reduced demand.

Rental Market Holds Steady

Rents remained unchanged in 4Q 2024 due to increased supply, with 3,062 units completed during the quarter. However, with a lower supply of 5,348 units expected in 2025 and an improving employment market, rents are projected to rise by 2-4% in the coming year.

Buyer Profile: Locals Lead the Charge

Singaporeans and Permanent Residents dominated purchases, accounting for 98.4% of buyers, with foreigners making up just 1.2%. The proportion of Singaporean buyers rose to 86.1% in 4Q 2024, up from 82.9% in the previous quarter. China, Malaysia, India, the USA, and Indonesia topped the list of foreign buyers. Transactions were skewed toward lower price brackets, with 24.8% of sales below 1.5 million and 27.2% between 1.5 million and $2 million.

Executive Condominiums Gain Traction

The executive condominium (EC) segment saw renewed interest, with Novo Place in Tengah selling 88.3% of its units. This launch, alongside the deferred payment scheme and ABSD remission for HDB upgraders, highlighted the appeal of ECs as an affordable luxury option.

Market Outlook: Optimism for 2025

Next year promises to be promising, with 23 potential launches and 12,393 units expected, including two EC projects. The CCR may see 2,775 units, while the RCR and OCR are set for 4,649 and 3,601 units, respectively. The strong sales momentum from late 2024 is expected to carry over, with developers projected to sell between 7,000 and 8,000 units in 2025. Barring unforeseen circumstances, price growth is forecast to range between 4-7%, signaling a robust year ahead for Singapore’s residential market.

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