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“Still Early”: What Tom Lee Gets Right About V-Shaped Markets, an AI-Powered Cycle, and Finance’s Coming Re-Rating

“Still Early”: What Tom Lee Gets Right About V-Shaped Markets, an AI-Powered Cycle, and Finance’s Coming Re-Rating 

Zion Zhao Real Estate | 狮家社小赵

Tom Lee’s recently make three big claims: (1) the U.S. equity market’s selloffs without recessions tend to recover in V-shapes; (2) this cycle is being driven by an AI-led capex super-theme that spills across utilities, industrials, communications, and financials; and (3) a structural “crypto + tokenization” rebuild of financial plumbing could someday push banks toward tech-like multiples. 










1) The market context: why “we’re still early” is plausible

A resilient bull with fresh earnings power. As of late August 2025, S&P 500 companies delivered double-digit earnings growth for 2Q25—FactSet’s blended YoY EPS growth sits ~11.9%, marking a third straight quarter of double-digit growth, with 81% of reporters beating estimates (FactSet, 2025a; 2025b). When price advances are underwritten by broad, positive EPS surprises, cyclical durability improves.

Behavior after fast drawdowns. Multiple empirical studies show that non-recessionary, high-velocity selloffs(“waterfall declines”) tend to retrace quickly and symmetrically—i.e., the steeper the drop, the swifter the rebound—especially when the economy avoids recession (LPL Research, 2024). That is consistent with 2020 and with 2025’s spring drawdown/rally rhythm Lee described.

Breadth and dispersion favor stock-pickers. 2025 has featured unusually wide dispersion inside Tech (semis strong; parts of software weak) and days where equal-weight outperforms cap-weight even as the index slips—classic “broadening” tells. While “Seven-stock market” narratives still surface, several sell-side and buyside reads note improving contribution beyond the mega-caps and a valuation gap between the largest names and the rest that is far narrower than 2023 (Goldman Sachs, 2024; 2025a; MarketWatch, 2025).

A small but important correction to the Tom Lee's claim: the ISM manufacturing index indeed stayed below 50 for an unusually long span—but the longest stretch since 1989-91, not since the 1950s (Yahoo Finance, 2024). That still signals pronounced corporate caution and supports the “coiled spring” idea if policy turns more dovish.

2) V-shaped recoveries: the rule, not the exception (when recessions are absent)

Lee’s “waterfall decline” framing aligns with market history. Sharp pullbacks without recessions typically retrace quickly; the average recovery time from a ≥10% non-recession drawdown is much faster than in recessionary bears (LPL Research, 2024). That’s partly microstructure (forced de-risking, then fast re-risking) and partly liquidity (policy doesn’t slam demand), which fits 2025: tariff-related jolts and an aggressive rate-path repricing, then a snapback as earnings and guidance held.

Practical implication: Investors who wait for the “retest” at the index level often never get it in the modern era—secondary retests happen more at the single-stock level than at the index level, a point Lee emphasizes and history corroborates (LPL Research, 2024).

3) It’s not “all AI”—but AI is the engine across sectors

Lee’s thesis that a single macro-theme can legitimately power a cycle is historically orthodox (think the 1980s retail/demographics wave or the 1990s internet buildout). Today, AI capex binds four of the market’s heavyweights:

  • Utilities / power: Data centers’ electricity use is set to at least double this decade, with AI the primary driver (IEA, 2024). U.S. EIA similarly flags mounting load growth from large data centers, reshaping regional power demand and investment (U.S. EIA, 2024). This underpins utilities’ re-rating.

  • Industrials / energy systems: Grid hardening, gas pipes, transformers, backup generation, cooling, and specialized construction all funnel into capex pipelines (IEA, 2024).

  • Communication services / data & platforms: Traffic, storage, and monetization of AI-enhanced services support revenue growth (FactSet, 2025a).

  • Financials: Beyond capital-markets activity, tokenization and real-time rails (see §4) could lift fee pools and efficiency.

Risk check: single-theme cycles are vulnerable if spending decouples from income. For now, margins remain robust and capex relates directly to revenue opportunities rather than pure leverage expansion (FactSet, 2025a; 2025b).

4) “Finance as tech”? Tokenization, stablecoins, and deposit tokens explained

Lee argues that once large banks refactor their transaction plumbing onto blockchain-based rails, market multiples could migrate upward. While provocative, there’s mounting, real-world evidence that tokenized finance is moving from pilots to production:

  • J.P. Morgan’s platform (rebranded Kinexys) reports >$1.5 trillion notional processed since inception and >$2 billion average daily volume, spanning payments and repo on blockchain (J.P. Morgan, 2024a; 2024b; PaymentExpert, 2024).

  • MAS Project Guardian (Singapore) has evolved into a multi-jurisdiction consortium with >40 institutions and central banks piloting tokenized funds, bonds, and cross-network interoperability—pushing real asset tokenization into production-scale prototypes (MAS, 2025; 2024; Citywire, 2024).

  • U.S. policy framework for stablecoins has advanced. The 2025 GENIUS Act was introduced to establish federal guardrails for payment stablecoins (Congress.gov, 2025) and has been framed by the administration as part of a broader digital-asset policy architecture (The White House, 2025). These rules—alongside state regimes—set the stage for bank-issued deposit tokens and compliant stablecoins at scale.

What that means for bank P&Ls: lower back-office costs, faster settlement, richer data, and new fee pools from tokenized cash, collateral, and securities. If those economics scale, tangible-book and NIM cease to be the only lenses—supporting Lee’s “tech-like multiple” hypothesis for the leaders. This is not guaranteed, but the pipe-laying is real (J.P. Morgan, 2024a; MAS, 2025).

5) Palantir and the “efficiency arbitrage” story

Lee cites a case where Palantir ingested supply-chain, invoicing, and hedging data to transform a commodity firm’s P&L. That anecdote mirrors Palantir’s reported surge in commercial uptake powered by its AIP platform (Palantir Technologies, 2025a; 2025b). Whether one loves or hates the valuation, the business transformation angle—turning data exhaust into operating leverage—is real and helps explain why some “software” names languish even as applied AI platforms thrive.

6) Earnings at (or near) highs: separating price from profits

Lee’s assertion that profits underwrite prices is testable. FactSet’s 2Q25 wrap shows:

  • Blended S&P 500 EPS growth ~11.9% YoY;

  • Eight of eleven sectors up YoY;

  • A high beat rate (81%) versus 5- and 10-year averages (FactSet, 2025a; 2025b).

Refinitiv similarly pegs 2Q25 earnings growth at ~12% (Refinitiv/LSEG, 2025). In other words, it’s not multiple expansion alone. The lingering critique is concentration risk, but breadth metrics have improved versus 2023 (Goldman Sachs, 2024; MarketWatch, 2025).

7) The economy and labor: caution, noise, and what to watch

Manufacturing malaise: ISM’s long sub-50 streak (longest since 1989–91) reflects cautious capex and tariff/inflation headwinds (Yahoo Finance, 2024). A break back above 50 tends to herald multi-year expansions, not one-off blips.

Employment data quality: Lee’s point about measurement noise is fair. The BLS itself discloses large sampling uncertainty and publishes standard-error tables for its establishment survey; revisions and benchmark updates are normal (BLS, 2025a; 2025b). ADP provides a useful independent view, but methods differ.

Younger-worker frictions: Evidence suggests mismatch (AI skills vs. openings) and a shift away from headcount-intensive models in certain sectors. None of that equates to macro weakness by itself, but it changes who gets hired for what—and favors firms that retool quickly.

8) Policy: Jackson Hole 2025 and the rates path

Chair Powell’s 2025 Jackson Hole remarks signaled a data-dependent readiness to cut if inflation and labor soften further—emphasizing Fed independence and risk management (Federal Reserve, 2025; Reuters, 2025). Markets now baseline two cuts into year-end; critically, the mortgage-rate “excess spread” that Lee mentioned—i.e., the unusually wide gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries—could compress as policy eases and uncertainty falls, catalyzing refi activity and housing turnover (Powell’s speech; macro consensus). That would broaden the cycle beyond AI.

9) “Who owns crypto?”—and why that still matters

Lee is right that crypto ownership remains generationally skewed. Only ~14–17% of U.S. adults report having invested in or used crypto at all, but the rates jump among men under 50 (Pew Research Center, 2024; Gallup, 2025). That means large swaths of capital are still under-allocated—consistent with the idea that institutional treasuries, ETFs, and corporates are incremental marginal buyers.

10) The BitMine/Ethereum treasury debate—opportunity vs. risk

I have discussed BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) extensively in the past in my private group chat and social media such as RedNote, etc which pivoted from bitcoin mining to an Ethereum treasury strategy with high-profile investors and minimal leverage; filings and company statements corroborate that BMNR has acquired a very large ETH position and positions itself to earn native staking yield with plans that include buybacks (BitMine, 2025a; 2025b; Reuters, 2025; The Block, 2025).

Fact-check on staking economics: Ethereum’s native staking yield has hovered around ~2.5–3.5% in 2025 depending on activity and validator participation (Staking Rewards, 2025; Figment/MarketVector, 2025). Yields are variable, not guaranteed, and depend on network conditions. ETH’s net supply growth since the Merge/EIP-1559 has been low and occasionally deflationary, but issuance depends on burn vs. staking dynamics (Ethereum Foundation, 2025).

Key risks to watch: (i) regulatory treatment of staking rewards and treasury accounting; (ii) liquidity/market-impact if large treasuries need to rebalance; (iii) headline/price volatility in ETH; and (iv) operational concentration among large validators. For now, the no/low-leverage posture mitigates classic margin-call spirals, but drawdown risk and regulatory risk remain.

11) “Granny Shots”: thematically concentrated, rules-driven growth

Lee’s GRNY ETF (the “Granny Shots” strategy) has scaled quickly since its Nov 2024 launch, surpassing $2B+ AUM in 2025 by combining multi-theme selection (AI, millennials, seasonality, quality growth) with equal-weighting to avoid mega-cap over-concentration (ETF.com, 2025; FundsEurope, 2025). Strategy transparency via weekly updates has likely helped advisor adoption.

Reality check: The fund out- and under-performs with cyclicality—e.g., February–April’s drawdown—then “catches up” in stabilization/risk-on periods. It’s growth-tilted by design, so choppy/bear phases can be harder. But the equal-weight tilt and multi-theme intersection give it breadth that many thematic ETFs lack.

12) Looking ahead: what would invalidate the “still early” thesis?

  • Macro shock that crimps AI capex and earnings simultaneously (energy prices, geopolitics, broad demand shock).

  • Policy error that re-widened mortgage and credit spreads even as growth slows (less likely after Powell’s 2025 guidance).

  • Tokenization stall-out if regulatory harmonization falters or deposit-token/stablecoin rails fail to scale with bank balance sheets.

  • Profit margin mean reversion—not just in a few leaders, but index-wide—accompanied by falling forward EPS (contrary to 2Q25 data so far; FactSet, 2025a).

Conclusion

Lee’s core framing stands up to data: (1) outside recessions, sharp declines usually V-rebound; (2) the AI-capex super-theme is not a mirage—its power, grid, industrial, and platform knock-ons are measurable; and (3) tokenization’s migration from pilots to production makes a finance re-rating more than a hot take, especially for the banks that actually ship it. None of that removes risk; it does, however, explain why claiming “it’s late” simply because prices are up has been an expensive thesis.



Position Your Capital for the “Still-Early” Decade—From Singapore

If the next 10 years look like the start of a new bull cycle across equities, AI infrastructure, and tokenized finance, your real estate needs a seat at the table—not on the sidelines. I help you build that seat in Singapore.

Why work with me

I’m a Singapore-based real estate professional with an uncommon edge: deep, daily practice at the intersection of macroeconomics, global affairs, portfolio construction, technical analysis (equities & crypto), and Singapore land/business law—and leadership discipline as an SAF Officer Commanding (Captain). Every day, I dedicate hours to writing research-backed essays and studying the macro data so my clients act with conviction, not guesswork. I do the due diligence.

The edge you get (beyond property)

Most agents only see property. I connect property to the cycle:

  • Cycle-aware timing: I actively track frameworks like “Still Early” V-shaped recoveries, AI-powered capex, and the coming finance re-rating—so you’re not buying or selling in an information vacuum.

  • Cross-asset perspective: Equity, crypto, rates, and FX flows shape district demand, yields, and exit liquidity. I read those tapes daily and translate them into property strategy.

  • Legal clarity, onshore confidence: Proficiency in Singapore Land Law, Business Law, statutes & regulations to keep transactions clean, compliant, and efficient.

  • Risk first: Portfolio-level sizing, cash-flow stress tests, and realistic base/ bear/ bull scenarios—because real estate should stabilize your total portfolio while compounding.

Who I serve

International, China Chinese, Southeast Asia, and Singapore clients—UHNWIs, family offices (家办), institutions, and families investing, immigrating, or studying abroad（陪读家长、留学）who want Singapore exposure with institutional rigor and absolute discretion.

面向国际/中国/东南亚/新加坡客户：
超高净值人士、家办、机构投资者与陪读家长/留学生家庭，如您正考虑在新加坡投资、移居、或教育规划，我将以合规、专业与市场前瞻，为您提供一站式房产配置与资产组合建议（稳健、可持续、可退出）。

What we can execute together

  • Acquisitions & portfolio design: Core/core-plus units for stability; value-add opportunities for alpha; right-sizing across CCR/RCR/OCR with target yield & IRR bands.

  • Yield engineering: Tenant mix, lease tenor optimization, furnishing capex discipline, and realistic expense modeling—turn rent into dividend-like income.

  • Institutional & family office mandates: Build Singapore as your base of operations: governance, pipeline curation, and multi-asset integration alongside your CIO.

  • Education & immigration-adjacent strategies: School-zone targeting, commuter logistics, and resale/rental liquidity planning for 陪读家长/留学生。

  • Legal & process management: From Option to Completion, due diligence to completion statements—no surprises.

Why add Singapore real estate now

  • Lower volatility, real cash flow: Property can dampen total-portfolio swings while delivering rental yields that behave like dividends—plus capital appreciation from supply discipline and structural demand.

  • Cycle alignment: If AI, power, and finance are the next decade’s growth engines, Singapore’s role as Asia’s trusted hub channels people, firms, and capital—supporting rents, absorption, and premium districts.

  • Dollar-denominated thinking, SGD execution: We frame decisions in the currencies and benchmarks you report to your board, then execute locally with precision.

Your next step (confidential and pressure-free)

Let’s have a 15-minute strategy call to map your objectives (wealth preservation vs. growth), risk budget, preferred districts, timeline, and compliance constraints. I’ll return with a clear, research-backed brief: target assets, expected yield ranges, and exit pathways—so you can decide with confidence.

Ready to position your portfolio for the next decade—from a Singapore base?
Message me today via your preferred channel to schedule a private consultation.


Courteous note: I’m humbled by the trust clients place in me. My role is to work quietly, think rigorously, and execute flawlessly—so your family and institution can focus on what matters most.

Disclaimer: This is general information, not financial or legal advice. All decisions should consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and professional counsel.

Disclaimers

This article is educational and not investment advice. It reflects publicly available information as of August 30, 2025 (Asia/Singapore) and reasonable interpretations thereof. Cryptocurrencies are volatile and may not be suitable for all investors. Always consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and local regulations.

In-text references (APA)

  • BitMine Immersion Technologies. (2025a, Aug. 21). BitMine Immersion Announces Ethereum Treasury Strategy[Press release]. PR Newswire.

  • BitMine Immersion Technologies. (2025b). SEC registration statement & filings. U.S. SEC EDGAR.

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2025a). Employment Situation: Technical note & standard errors.

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (2025b). CES birth–death & benchmark methodology.

  • Citywire. (2024, Jun. 27). MAS unveils more Project Guardian asset tokenisation pilots.

  • Congress.gov. (2025). GENIUS Act (payment stablecoins): Bill summary & status.

  • ETF.com. (2025). GRNY—Funstrat Granny Shots ETF: Overview & AUM.

  • FactSet. (2025a, Aug. 29). Earnings Insight (Q2 2025): Blended growth ~11.9% [PDF].

  • FactSet. (2025b, Aug. 8). S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: Q2 2025.

  • Federal Reserve. (2025, Aug. 29). Powell—Jackson Hole 2025 Remarks: Data dependence and policy path.

  • Figment/MarketVector. (2025, Jul.). Ethereum staking yield composite index methodology & levels.

  • Gallup. (2025, Jul. 22). Cryptocurrency still has limited Main Street appeal (14% ownership).

  • Goldman Sachs. (2024, Nov. 25). Top of Mind—Market concentration: How big a worry?

  • International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Electricity 2024: Data centre & AI power demand outlook.

  • J.P. Morgan. (2024a, Nov. 6). Introducing Kinexys: >$1.5T processed; $2B avg. daily.

  • J.P. Morgan. (2024b). Kinexys digital payments & digital assets pages.

  • LPL Research. (2024). Pullback Perspective: Non-recession corrections recover fast & often V-shaped.

  • MarketWatch. (2025). Bridgewater: Magnificent 7 may be cheaper than you think; equal-weight dynamics.

  • Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). (2025). Project Guardian: Overview & industry group (2024–2025 expansions).

  • Palantir Technologies. (2025a). Q2 2025 shareholder letter & 8-K: Commercial customer growth, AIP.

  • Palantir Technologies. (2025b). Q2 2025 earnings call transcript.

  • PaymentExpert. (2024, Nov. 7). J.P. Morgan to offer FX settlements amid platform rebrand (Onyx → Kinexys): $1.5T processed.

  • Pew Research Center. (2024, Oct. 24). 17% of U.S. adults have ever used or invested in crypto; strong age/sex skew.

  • Refinitiv/LSEG. (2025, Aug.). S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard Q2 2025.

  • Reuters. (2025, Aug. 29). Powell signals readiness to cut if data warrant at Jackson Hole.

  • Staking Rewards. (2025). Ethereum staking yield (APY) tracker & methodology.

  • The Block. (2025, Aug. 18). Tom Lee’s BitMine files showing ~$6.6B ETH held; no leverage claims.

  • The White House. (2025). FACT SHEET: Advancing responsible stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act context).

  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Data center electricity use & regional load outlook.

  • Yahoo Finance. (2024, Nov. 1). Factory slump: ISM under 50 for 26 months—longest since 1989–91.

References (APA)

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025a). Employment Situation: Technical note.https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025b). CES methodology: Birth–death model & benchmarks.https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Citywire. (2024, June 27). MAS unveils more Project Guardian asset tokenisation pilots.https://citywire.com/asia/news/mas-unveils-more-project-guardian-asset-tokenisation-pilots/a2430446

Congress.gov. (2025). G.E.N.I.U.S. Act [Bill tracker]. https://www.congress.gov

ETF.com. (2025). GRNY Funstrat Granny Shots ETF. https://www.etf.com

FactSet. (2025a, August 29). Earnings Insight [PDF]. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_082925.pdf

FactSet. (2025b, August 8). S&P 500 Earnings Season Update. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-8-2025

Federal Reserve. (2025, August 29). Perspectives on the economic outlook and monetary policy [Jackson Hole remarks]. https://www.federalreserve.gov

Figment & MarketVector. (2025, July). ETH Staking Yield Index. https://www.marketvector.com

Gallup. (2025, July 22). Cryptocurrency still has limited Main Street appeal. https://news.gallup.com

Goldman Sachs. (2024, November 25). Top of Mind: Market concentration—How big a worry?https://www.goldmansachs.com

International Energy Agency. (2024). Electricity 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2026. https://www.iea.org

J.P. Morgan. (2024a, November 6). Introducing Kinexys. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/payments/payment-trends/introducing-kinexys

J.P. Morgan. (2024b). Kinexys digital assets & payments pages. https://www.jpmorgan.com/kinexys

LPL Research. (2024). Pullback Perspective: What comes after corrections and waterfall declines? https://www.lpl.com

MarketWatch. (2025). ‘Magnificent Seven’ may be cheap and S&P 493 expensive: Bridgewater.https://www.marketwatch.com

Monetary Authority of Singapore. (2025). Project Guardian. https://www.mas.gov.sg/schemes-and-initiatives/project-guardian

Palantir Technologies. (2025a). Q2 2025 results—Shareholder letter. https://investors.palantir.com

Palantir Technologies. (2025b). Q2 2025 earnings call transcript. https://investors.palantir.com

PaymentExpert. (2024, November 7). J.P. Morgan rebrands Onyx; >$1.5T processed. https://paymentexpert.com

Pew Research Center. (2024, October 24). Majority of Americans aren’t confident in the safety/reliability of cryptocurrency. https://www.pewresearch.org

Refinitiv/LSEG. (2025, August 6). S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 25Q2. https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com

Reuters. (2025, August 29). Powell’s Jackson Hole speech hints at readiness to cut rates. https://www.reuters.com

Staking Rewards. (2025). Ethereum staking yield tracker. https://www.stakingrewards.com

The Block. (2025, August 18). Tom Lee says BitMine holds ~$6.6B in ETH; zero leverage. https://www.theblock.co

The White House. (2025). FACT SHEET: Advancing responsible stablecoin regulation. https://www.whitehouse.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024). Today in Energy—Data centers drive U.S. electricity demand growth.https://www.eia.gov

Yahoo Finance. (2024, November 1). ISM factory gauge logs longest sub-50 stretch since 1989–1991.https://finance.yahoo.com

BitMine Immersion Technologies SEC filings and PR Newswire releases are available via the U.S. SEC EDGAR system (https://www.sec.gov) and PR Newswire (https://www.prnewswire.com).

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