Tom Lee’s Case for a New 10-Year Bull Market—And Why Ethereum May Outrun Bitcoin
Tom Lee’s Case for a New 10-Year Bull Market—And Why Ethereum May Outrun Bitcoin
Author: Zion Zhao Real Estate | 狮家社小赵
1) The Big Claim: A New Bull Market That Could Run to 2035
Tom Lee’s central thesis is bold but internally coherent: we’re in the early innings of a secular U.S. equity bull market that could plausibly run through 2035. Three pillars support that call:
Demographics as a super-cycle driver. Lee argues that equity super-cycles tend to line up with generational peaks in saving and investing. Academic work gives this intuition some grounding. Geanakoplos, Magill, and Quinzii (2004) model how the ratio of middle-aged savers to younger cohorts (the “MY ratio”) relates to long-run stock market behavior, and Poterba (2001) documents links—albeit nuanced and not always statistically clean—between age structure and asset returns (Geanakoplos et al., 2004; Poterba, 2001). Millennials and older Gen-Z are moving into their prime saving years now, a demographic tailwind that historically aligns with rising equity valuations. (Geanakoplos et al., 2004; Poterba, 2001; Poterba, 2004). Brookingseconomics.mit.eduNBER
A resilient earnings machine. Even after shocks—pandemic, supply-chain snarls, tariff volatility, and the sharpest Fed tightening since the 1980s—S&P 500 earnings have continued to achieve higher highs, with 2024–2025 revisions stabilizing as AI and productivity themes spread from megacaps to “old economy” sectors (utilities, industrials, selected financials). (For valuation and profit trend context, see Yardeni, FactSet, and S&P indices work that track forward P/E and earnings breadth; not all of those are cited here, but we rely on contemporaneous earnings releases and sector data points where possible.)
AI + tokenization as real-economy catalysts. Utilities and industrials are rerating because AI is a power and infrastructure story as much as a software one. The International Energy Agency estimates that global data-center electricity use could roughly double by 2030, with data centers accounting for >20% of demand growth in advanced economies—a thesis that directly benefits power and grid-adjacent industries (IEA, 2025). IEA+1
Bottom line: While demographics are not destiny, they are durable. Combine a pro-growth age structure with sustained earnings leadership from AI-enabled firms and a coming wave of financial-infrastructure modernization (tokenization, stablecoins), and Lee’s “early-cycle” framing looks reasonable rather than euphoric. (Geanakoplos et al., 2004; Poterba, 2001; IEA, 2025). Brookingseconomics.mit.eduIEA
2) What Would Invalidate the Bull Case?
Lee watches for two broad failure modes:
Policy shock. Markets rarely melt down without a macro catalyst. Here, the independence of the Federal Reservematters—politicized monetary policy raises term premia, undermines credibility, and can force disorderly repricings. Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized the importance of independence and accountability; a January 2025 speech underscored that the Fed “will not be swayed by politics” (Reuters, 2025; Federal Reserve, 2025). Empirical work (e.g., Blinder and successors) links central-bank independence to better inflation outcomes, supporting higher real valuations over time.
Excess speculation. Think 1999: easy capital, weak underwriting, and unsustainable business models. Today’s AI spending is large, but it is financing tangible capacity—power, chips, data centers—and profit pools. Dispersion within tech (winners and losers) also argues against an indiscriminate bubble. VIX “rules” (e.g., “>60 then <30 equals the bottom”) are useful anecdotes at extremes (2008, 2020) but are heuristics, not laws—so we treat them as context, not triggers.
3) Why “It’s Still Early”: Breadth, Banks, and the Plumbers of Finance
3.1 Breadth is quietly improving
Equal-weighted indices and “quality growth” baskets broadened leadership beyond a handful of megacaps through 2025, powered by AI-adjacent beneficiaries (power, grid, industrial capex) and by financials seeing early wins from blockchain-based efficiencies.
3.2 Banks could be re-rated as tech-enabled networks
Lee’s provocation—that leading banks can earn “tech” multiples—sounds outlandish until you look at what they’re building:
JPMorgan’s Onyx unit rebranded as Kinexys and now runs tokenized payments and digital-asset rails at genuine scale: >$1.5 trillion cumulative transaction volume since inception across Kinexys, and ~$1 billion daily tokenized deposit transfers via JPM Coin (now “Kinexys Digital Payments”) (Kinexys, 2024–2025; Bloomberg, 2023). That is not a lab; it’s production. JPMorganBloombergLedger Insights
Project Guardian (Singapore MAS) is the most advanced real-world tokenization testbed, with global banks piloting on-chain fund distribution, tokenized notes, and DvP/PvP settlement. 2024–2025 announcements show structured notes issued on Ethereum, and cross-bank pilots expanding under MAS guidance (MAS, 2024; Yahoo Finance/DBS, 2025). Monetary Authority of SingaporeYahoo Finance
These are exactly the plumbing changes that lower frictional costs in capital markets and payments. If cost-to-serve and balance-sheet velocity improve, profits can rise even without top-line explosions—supporting Lee’s “financials can re-rate” idea.
4) “Buy Companies, Not Just the Market”
Lee’s practical advice—own businesses you understand—is especially apt in an age of model-driven dispersion. Two names from the conversation illustrate why fundamentals still matter.
4.1 Palantir: “consulting + software,” now with line-of-sight operating leverage
Skeptics call Palantir “expensive.” Bulls counter that it’s a verticalized analytics platform that re-plumbs workflows—often moving the needle on margins for clients. The latest print supports the bull view: Palantir guided 2025 revenue to ~$4.05–$4.1 billion, reported 34% adjusted free-cash-flow margin, and continues rapid U.S. commercial expansion (Palantir, 2025). Price can still be debated; the business looks increasingly repeatable as AIP deployments scale. (Palantir, 2025).
4.2 JPMorgan/Goldman: from multiple compression to “plumbing premium”
If Kinexys-like rails reduce staffing intensity and settlement frictions, Tier-1 banks could capture “infra rents” the way networks do—less about net interest margin, more about throughput, latency, and balance-sheet utility. Early data points (Kinexys volumes, cross-network DvP pilots) are consistent with that thesis (Kinexys, 2024–2025; Ledger Insights, 2024). JPMorganLedger Insights
5) Inflation Fears vs. Power-and-Productivity Reality
Investors remain scarred by the 2021–2023 inflation episode. But two features of 2025 stand out:
AI-power demand is real, not narrative. IEA estimates show global data-center electricity consumption growing ~15% annually through 2030—four times faster than total electricity demand—placing utilities and grid equipment at the center of the capex cycle (IEA, 2025). IEA
Policy clarity is improving where it matters. Fed independence statements and a clearer regulatory lane for tokenization (see below) lower macro risk premia, supporting equity multiples relative to the “policy-fog” era of 2022. (Reuters, 2025; Federal Reserve, 2025).
6) Crypto, Clarified: Bitcoin’s Digital-Gold Lane vs. Ethereum’s Real-World Rails
Lee is a long-time Bitcoin bull and an Ethereum super-bull. Those views are not contradictory once you separate their use-cases:
6.1 Bitcoin as programmatic scarcity (store of value)
Roughly 19.8–19.9 million BTC (about 94–95% of the 21 million cap) are already mined; supply dispersion will stretch to ~2140 (CoinDesk; Investopedia, 2025). That scarcity underwrites the “digital gold” narrative. Institutional ownership is still nascent (various custodial and ETF adoption supports growth), and illiquid supply has been rising—features that have historically supported upside convexity during easing cycles (CoinDesk, 2025; Investopedia, 2025). CoinDeskInvestopedia
6.2 Ethereum as programmable infrastructure (tokenization + stablecoins + agents)
Why Lee thinks ETH can flip BTC’s network value over time:
Tokenization is moving from whitepapers to production. Global institutions are piloting tokenized funds, notes, and collateral flows, often on Ethereum or its L2s. The MAS Project Guardian program has become the reference venue; global banks are issuing and settling on public-chain rails in controlled settings (MAS, 2024; Kinexys, 2025). Citi’s GPS report projects $4–5 trillion of tokenized real-world assets by 2030—large enough to matter (Citi GPS, 2023). Monetary Authority of SingaporeJPMorgan
Stablecoins are a real market, mostly dollar-denominated. Total stablecoin float now sits in the $250–$280 billion range depending on source and date; a large share circulates on Ethereum (CoinMetrics sector analysis; RWA.xyz, 2025). The U.S. GENIUS Act (2025) created a licensing path for fiat-backed stablecoins, and the SEC’s proposed Project “Crypto” aims to supervise digital-asset products more directly—both tilting toward mainstreaming rather than suppression (Reuters, 2025). Collectively, that is a green light for regulated dollar rails at internet speed (CoinMetrics, 2025; RWA.xyz, 2025; Reuters, 2025). Coin MetricsRWA.xyz
ETH has a native yield and high reliability (with caveats). Staking has typically yielded ~3–4% in 2025; about ~29% of ETH supply is staked, supporting network security and investor carry (Business Insider, 2025; CoinMetrics, 2025). Ethereum’s uptime has been extremely high; there were brief finality issues on the Beacon chain in May 2023, but no persistent downtime—useful nuance to “never down” claims (ethereum.org, 2023). Coin Metrics
Who owns crypto today? In the U.S., Pew finds ~17% of adults have ever invested, traded, or used crypto—concentrated among younger cohorts—leaving ample runway for adoption (Pew Research Center, 2024).
Take-away: Bitcoin is the macro-hedge with hard-cap scarcity; Ethereum is the programmable base-layer for tokenized money, assets, and agents. If regulated stablecoins (largely dollar-based) and tokenized assets scale on Ethereum-compatible rails, Lee’s “ETH can outgrow BTC” argument becomes a straightforward addressable-market claim. (Citi GPS, 2023; MAS, 2024; Kinexys, 2025). Monetary Authority of SingaporeJPMorgan
7) A Reality Check on “Treasury ETH” Strategies
Lee chairs Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMR), which pivoted from mining to an Ethereum treasury strategy in mid-2025—raising equity capital to acquire and stake ETH rather than levering up. Media coverage reports >$1 billion in ETH holdings following initial commitments of ~$250 million, with marquee investors participating (Business Insider, 2025). The model is distinct from leveraged bitcoin treasuries because (a) capital is equity-funded and (b) staking introduces a native carry (subject to validator and slashing risks). This is not an endorsement, just a clarification of mechanics and risk. Business Insider
Regulatory context matters. The GENIUS Act and the SEC’s Project “Crypto” are meant to bring fiat-backed stablecoins and listed crypto products into a supervised perimeter. That policy stance reduces (not removes) tail risks associated with corporate crypto treasuries (Reuters, 2025).
8) Putting It All Together: A Practical Playbook
Macro framing: With demographics supportive and the Fed signaling independence, secular valuation pressure is lower than headlines suggest. Watch rates beyond ~6% on the long end and energy price spikes as stress points. (Reuters, 2025; Federal Reserve, 2025).
Sector stance: Avoid thinking “AI = just software.” The power grid, transmission, factories, and logistics are the capital-deep beneficiaries. That’s why utilities and industrials have repriced along with semis (IEA, 2025). IEA
Stock selection: Lee’s heuristic—own companies, not tickers—fits a dispersion regime. Palantir’s operating metrics and JPMorgan’s Kinexys data points are examples of “show me” fundamentals. (Palantir, 2025; Kinexys, 2024–2025). JPMorgan
Crypto bifurcation: If you dabble, know why you own each asset: Bitcoin for programmatic scarcity; Ethereum for programmable finance and tokenized money/assets. Treat staking yields, validator risks, and regulatory changes as first-order variables—not footnotes (Business Insider, 2025; CoinMetrics, 2025; Reuters, 2025). Coin Metrics
9) What Would Make Me Turn Cautious?
Clear erosion of Fed independence or explicit fiscal/monetary fusion that unanchors inflation expectations. (Reuters, 2025; Federal Reserve, 2025).
AI capex rolling over hard (power and data-center build cancellations), which would show up quickly in utility-interconnect queues and chip orders (IEA, 2025). IEA
Tokenization failing to move beyond pilots, or U.S. stablecoin policy swinging toward prohibition rather than licensing. (MAS, 2024; Reuters, 2025). Monetary Authority of Singapore
10) Final Thought
Lee’s optimism isn’t naïve; it’s a bet that plumbing—of energy and finance—is where the next decade’s equity value accrues. If AI makes the grid and the enterprise more productive, and if tokenization reduces financial friction, then “we’re still early” is less a slogan and more a base case.
Position Your Capital for the “Still-Early” Decade—From Singapore
If the next 10 years look like the start of a new bull cycle across equities, AI infrastructure, and tokenized finance, your real estate needs a seat at the table—not on the sidelines. I help you build that seat in Singapore.
Why work with me
I’m a Singapore-based real estate professional with an uncommon edge: deep, daily practice at the intersection of macroeconomics, global affairs, portfolio construction, technical analysis (equities & crypto), and Singapore land/business law—and leadership discipline as an SAF Officer Commanding (Captain). Every day, I dedicate hours to writing research-backed essays and studying the macro data so my clients act with conviction, not guesswork. I do the due diligence.
The edge you get (beyond property)
Most agents only see property. I connect property to the cycle:
Cycle-aware timing: I actively track frameworks like “Still Early” V-shaped recoveries, AI-powered capex, and the coming finance re-rating—so you’re not buying or selling in an information vacuum.
Cross-asset perspective: Equity, crypto, rates, and FX flows shape district demand, yields, and exit liquidity. I read those tapes daily and translate them into property strategy.
Legal clarity, onshore confidence: Proficiency in Singapore Land Law, Business Law, statutes & regulations to keep transactions clean, compliant, and efficient.
Risk first: Portfolio-level sizing, cash-flow stress tests, and realistic base/ bear/ bull scenarios—because real estate should stabilize your total portfolio while compounding.
Who I serve
International, China Chinese, Southeast Asia, and Singapore clients—UHNWIs, family offices (家办), institutions, and families investing, immigrating, or studying abroad（陪读家长、留学）who want Singapore exposure with institutional rigor and absolute discretion.
面向国际/中国/东南亚/新加坡客户：
超高净值人士、家办、机构投资者与陪读家长/留学生家庭，如您正考虑在新加坡投资、移居、或教育规划，我将以合规、专业与市场前瞻，为您提供一站式房产配置与资产组合建议（稳健、可持续、可退出）。
What we can execute together
Acquisitions & portfolio design: Core/core-plus units for stability; value-add opportunities for alpha; right-sizing across CCR/RCR/OCR with target yield & IRR bands.
Yield engineering: Tenant mix, lease tenor optimization, furnishing capex discipline, and realistic expense modeling—turn rent into dividend-like income.
Institutional & family office mandates: Build Singapore as your base of operations: governance, pipeline curation, and multi-asset integration alongside your CIO.
Education & immigration-adjacent strategies: School-zone targeting, commuter logistics, and resale/rental liquidity planning for 陪读家长/留学生。
Legal & process management: From Option to Completion, due diligence to completion statements—no surprises.
Why add Singapore real estate now
Lower volatility, real cash flow: Property can dampen total-portfolio swings while delivering rental yields that behave like dividends—plus capital appreciation from supply discipline and structural demand.
Cycle alignment: If AI, power, and finance are the next decade’s growth engines, Singapore’s role as Asia’s trusted hub channels people, firms, and capital—supporting rents, absorption, and premium districts.
Dollar-denominated thinking, SGD execution: We frame decisions in the currencies and benchmarks you report to your board, then execute locally with precision.
Your next step (confidential and pressure-free)
Let’s have a 15-minute strategy call to map your objectives (wealth preservation vs. growth), risk budget, preferred districts, timeline, and compliance constraints. I’ll return with a clear, research-backed brief: target assets, expected yield ranges, and exit pathways—so you can decide with confidence.
Ready to position your portfolio for the next decade—from a Singapore base?
Message me today via your preferred channel to schedule a private consultation.
Courteous note: I’m humbled by the trust clients place in me. My role is to work quietly, think rigorously, and execute flawlessly—so your family and institution can focus on what matters most.
Disclaimer: This is general information, not financial or legal advice. All decisions should consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and professional counsel.
References (APA)
Bloomberg. (2023, October 25). JPMorgan says JPM Coin now handles $1 billion transactions daily.https://www.bloomberg.com/ (See citation) Bloomberg
Business Insider. (2025, July). Why investors are eyeing ether as the next big crypto treasury play.https://www.businessinsider.com/ (See citation) Business Insider
Citi GPS. (2023). Money, Tokens and Games: Blockchain’s next billion users and trillions in value. https://www.citi.com (PDF)
CoinDesk. (2025, June 26). Bitcoin illiquid supply climbs to over 14M BTC... https://www.coindesk.com/ (See citation) CoinDesk
CoinMetrics. (2025, April 1). State of the Network: Q1 2025 wrap up. https://coinmetrics.io/ (See citation) Coin Metrics
CoinMetrics. (2025, May 13). Stablecoin sector analysis. https://coinmetrics.io/ (See citation) Coin Metrics
Federal Reserve. (2025, January). Independence and accountability remarks. https://www.federalreserve.gov/ (See citation)
Geanakoplos, J., Magill, M., & Quinzii, M. (2004). Demography and the long-run predictability of the stock market.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. https://www.brookings.edu/ (PDF) Brookings
IEA. (2025, April 10). AI is set to drive surging electricity demand from data centres… https://www.iea.org/ (See citation) IEA
IEA. (2024–2025). Energy and AI | Energy demand from AI (report and data). https://www.iea.org/ (See citations) IEAiea.blob.core.windows.net
Investopedia. (2025, August 29). What happens to Bitcoin after all 21 million are mined? https://www.investopedia.com/ (See citation) Investopedia
Kinexys by J.P. Morgan. (2024–2025). About / Digital Payments / Digital Assets / Project Guardian pages.https://www.jpmorgan.com/kinexys (See citations) JPMorgan+2JPMorgan+2
MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore). (2024, November 4). MAS announces plans to support commercialisation of asset tokenisation. https://www.mas.gov.sg/ (See citation) Monetary Authority of Singapore
Palantir Technologies. (2025, August). Q2 2025 results press release and investor presentation. https://www.palantir.com/ (See citation)
Pew Research Center. (2024, May 16). Most Americans who’ve heard of crypto say they haven’t seen much about it recently. https://www.pewresearch.org/ (See citation)
Poterba, J. M. (2001). Demographic structure and asset returns. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 565–584. (Working-paper and article versions) economics.mit.eduIDEAS/RePEc
Poterba, J. M. (2004). Population aging and financial markets. NBER. https://www.nber.org/ (See citation) SSRN
Reuters. (2025, January 19). Powell says Fed will not be swayed by politics. https://www.reuters.com/ (See citation)
Reuters. (2025, August). U.S. lawmakers pass GENIUS Act; SEC floats Project “Crypto.” https://www.reuters.com/(See citation)
RWA.xyz. (2025, August 30). Analytics on tokenized real-world assets (stablecoin and RWA dashboards).https://app.rwa.xyz/ (See citation) RWA.xyz
Yahoo Finance / DBS. (2025, August 20). DBS launches tokenized structured notes on Ethereum as part of MAS pilots.https://finance.yahoo.com/ (See citation) Yahoo Finance
ethereum.org. (2023, May 12–13). Beacon chain finality issue post-mortem (no persistent downtime).https://ethereum.org/ (See citation)
Important disclaimers
This essay is for education and discussion. It is not financial, legal, or tax advice; investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Crypto assets can be highly volatile and may be regulated differently across jurisdictions. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified professional.
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