AI Goes “Circular”: Nvidia × OpenAI × Oracle, TikTok’s U.S. carve-out, and the FAANG+ technical setup
AI Goes “Circular”: Nvidia × OpenAI × Oracle, TikTok’s U.S. carve-out, and the FAANG+ technical setup
Author: Zion Zhao Real Estate | 狮家社小赵
The past week delivered three investable through-lines: (1) the formalization of a “circular” capital–demand flywheel in AI infrastructure (Nvidia funding OpenAI, which in turn buys Nvidia systems often provisioned via Oracle/others); (2) decisive moves to secure U.S. market footing for TikTok and Meta’s counter-narrative momentum (including Instagram’s scale milestone and new dating features); and (3) quiet but material shifts in platform monetization and policy—Perplexity’s Search API (developer-facing distribution), EV tax credit timing (demand pull-forward), and federal H-1B fee changes (talent pipelines). For equity positioning, the upshot is less about one-off headlines and more about second-order effects: backlog visibility for AI capex suppliers; platform ad and commerce optionality; and tactical entries within well-defined technical ranges.
1) “Circular” AI economics: what’s really happening
The headline
Nvidia announced it intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, tied to staged deployment of multi-GW data centers, while also supplying the GPUs that power those sites (including those run on Oracle infrastructure). This crystallizes a financing-plus-supply model that aligns incentives across demand generation (OpenAI), silicon (Nvidia), and cloud operators (Oracle, CoreWeave, others). (Reuters, 2025; Nvidia newsroom, 2025). Reuters+1
Why this matters
Demand assurance & capacity reservation. Large, pre-committed spend allows Nvidia to forward-plan supply, while OpenAI secures compute against global scarcity. Oracle (and peers) gain visibility on utilization ramp. (Reuters, 2025). Reuters
Not actually “circular” in a vacuum. The meme version (“Nvidia funds OpenAI → OpenAI buys Nvidia → Oracle leases back to OpenAI”) misses that risk, cash flows, and assets sit on different balance sheets (e.g., long-term capacity contracts, non-voting stakes, and hardware resale/lease). (Reuters, 2025). Reuters
Stargate ramps ahead of schedule. OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced five additional U.S. data-center sites as part of the $500 billion, 10-GW “Stargate” program, bringing planned capacity near 7 GW to date and putting the partners ahead of 2025 milestones (AP/ABC; Reuters; OpenAI). ABC News+2Reuters+2
Supplier read-throughs
CoreWeave lifted its OpenAI agreement again, adding up to $6.5 billion and bringing 2025 deal value to ~$22.4 billion (after $11.9B in March, $4B in May). Hardware orders with Nvidia include take-or-pay-like provisions and back-stop capacity options—key to smoothing supply volatility. (Company release; Reuters; WSJ; RCR Wireless). RCR Wireless News+3CoreWeave+3Reuters+3
Micron (memory) put up +46% YoY revenue with strong AI DRAM/HBM mix, and signaled continued tailwinds—evidence that AI demand is broadening beyond GPUs to memory and packaging. (Barron’s; WSJ; company IR). Barron's+2The Wall Street Journal+2
2) Oracle’s role: not the concrete, the racks and SLAs
Market chatter often frames Oracle as “building” data centers. In reality, the developer-operator-lessor split is standard: specialist real-estate/data-center firms build and power sites; Oracle equips and operates compute capacity (racks, networks, storage, DB/OCI control plane) and contracts it to tenants like OpenAI. This 3-to-6-month pre-opening fit-outmodel is how hyperscale co-location has worked for years; Oracle’s pitch is speed-to-capacity plus database adjacency. (Oracle materials; Reuters/ABC corroboration of the partner model). Oracle+2Reuters+2
Investor take: Expect step-ups as contracts are revised upward (CoreWeave’s pattern is instructive) and as non-U.S. demand (government and enterprise) comes online. Near-term, shares can consolidate after outsized runs, but backlog visibility and multi-GW roadmaps support constructive medium-term multiples. (Reuters; company updates). Reuters+1
3) Platforms & policy
TikTok US at ~$14 billion valuation
Following White House action, reports indicate TikTok U.S. will be valued around $14 billion, with an Oracle-led investor group taking a controlling stake and ByteDance retaining ~20% (non-security) participation. This solidifies U.S. operations and the ad/commercial graph, while keeping pressure on transparency and data governance. (Financial Times; Business Insider). Financial Times+1
Meta cross-winds: On one hand, a stabilized TikTok sustains the short-video ad arms race; on the other, Instagram hit 3 billion MAUs, demonstrating Meta’s sheer distribution advantage for Reels, DMs-centric engagement, and commerce experimentation. (The Verge; TechCrunch). The Verge+1
Perplexity’s Search API (developer monetization vs. “grandma search”)
Perplexity launched a Search API exposing its answer-engine infrastructure to developers—enabling vertical, white-label, or domain-bounded “search” inside apps. This is not a Google-replacement for mass users; it is a route to embed retrieval + synthesis into products without building a crawler/index. (Perplexity blog; InfoWorld; Seeking Alpha coverage). Perplexity AI+2InfoWorld+2
H-1B fee shock and tech labor pipelines
A new Presidential proclamation and DHS/USCIS guidance impose a $100,000 payment for new H-1B petitionssubmitted after Sept 21, 2025—a material change likely to alter talent strategies (e.g., more remote/offshore, O-1/L-1 pivots) and push lobbying spend. (White House; USCIS; news analyses). The White House+2USCIS+2
EV credits: timing nuance investors (and car buyers) care about
The new EV tax credit framework sunsets after Sept 30, 2025. Crucially, IRS guidance now allows eligibility if you enter a binding written contract and make a payment by Sept 30, 2025, even if you take delivery later—a demand pull-forward dynamic relevant to Tesla and peers’ quarter-end cadence. (IRS guidance; Kiplinger explainer). IRS+1
4) Company-specific updates & implications
Meta
Product: Instagram’s 3 billion MAUs confirm Meta’s ability to absorb feature innovations (Reels/Discovery) and keep daily attention. The Verge
Policy posture: With Washington spend ramping across the industry, expect transactional engagement on immigration, content policy, and antitrust to continue. (Context from White House and visa actions). The White House
Positioning: Pullbacks to mid-channel support can be buy-the-dip zones, given continuing ad optimization and Reels monetization learning curves.
Apple
On-device AI is the true “holy grail”: Apple’s advantage is private, context-rich orchestration (photos, mail, calendar, location) that reduces cloud calls and latency.
Hardware cadence: Expect incremental silicon leadership to preserve battery/thermal headroom for on-device models, while foldable/“thin” industrial design experiments set the stage for form-factor expansion. (General industry positioning; no single-source claim.)
Positioning: After a clean breakout from a long base, near ATH tests are rational trim zones for trading sleeves while long-horizon core remains intact.
Amazon
AI distribution: Amazon’s exposure to Anthropic (enterprise-leaning, API-first) is a differentiated hyperscaler bet; note claims that ~80% of consumer Claude usage is ex-U.S., highlighting global demand and why cloud deals aren’t only a U.S. story. (Anthropic/platform disclosures in recent coverage.)
Grocery strategy: Signals point to a marketplace-and-delivery-first approach (regional grocer partnerships) vs. low-margin owned retail expansion—capital-light, fee-rich economics. (Strategy inference from recent press and observable rollouts.)
Positioning: A technical breakdown creates better entries into earnings as margins benefit from higher-mix services and ad businesses.
Netflix
Sports foothold: Reports indicate Netflix will exclusively stream the Yankees–Giants 2026 MLB Opening Daygame—continued testing of live sports tentpoles that can be monetized via ad tiers and sponsorships. (Awful Announcing; Inkl). Awful Announcing+1
Positioning: Tight multi-month range into earnings offers defined-risk setups; any credible sports/ad RPM update could be an upside catalyst.
Nvidia
$100 billion commitment to OpenAI formalizes the demand pipeline and potentially locks out rival silicon in these footprints. Watch for staged GW announcements, delivery schedules (e.g., Vera Rubin platform), and downstream HBM/memory constraints. (Nvidia newsroom; Reuters). NVIDIA Newsroom+1
Positioning: Post-pop consolidation in the 170–180 zone (at the time of writing) is constructive; catalysts now come via hyperscaler capex outlooks.
Google (Alphabet)
Developer monetization: Perplexity’s API underscores a broader trend: retrieval is unbundling from consumer search. Alphabet’s moat is still ads + Android + YouTube + cloud, but vertical “micro-search” will proliferate. (Perplexity blog; InfoWorld). Perplexity AI+1
Positioning: Pullbacks to fill gaps (low-$210s) remain buyable, barring regulatory shocks.
Microsoft / Gaming
Handhelds: The ROG Xbox Ally X (Xbox-branded ASUS device) sold out across multiple channels, validating appetite for PC-class handhelds that extend Game Pass reach. (VICE; PureXbox; GameSpot). VICE+2Pure Xbox+2
Positioning: Minor to corp-level revenue, but strategically aligned to ecosystem MAUs and cloud gaming.
Tesla
Policy backdrop: With EV credits time-boxed (see above) and delivery cadence key, quarter-end order timingmatters. (IRS). IRS
Autonomy narrative: Software updates continue; less headline risk from early robo-taxi pilots is good newsinsofar as safety-incident silence persists. (Ongoing observation; no single source.)
Positioning: Trading near highs pre-earnings can justify trims in trading accounts, while long-term thesis (software margin, energy) remains optionality-rich.
5) Technical landscape (tactics for traders)
S&P 500: Pullback after a three-red-candle sequence with an inside-day pause is textbook digestion into earnings season.
Setups:
Meta: Mid-channel support = staged adds.
Apple: Test of prior highs = trim for traders; maintain core.
Amazon: Breakdown → watch ~$190s for swing-longs into prints.
Netflix: Range-bound; earnings could break the $1,188–$1,280 box.
Nvidia: $170–$180 coil; watch capex color from hyperscalers.
Google/Microsoft: Buy pullbacks to open gaps / prior breakouts.
Tesla: Pre-report strength; manage exposure around update cadence.
(Technical levels are based on the time that I wrote this essay; check your platform for precise levels and risk controls.)
6) Risks & what I’ll watch next
Antitrust/competition policy around “circular” financing and long-dated capacity commitments. (Reuters). Reuters
Power & grid constraints as GW footprints scale; timelines are multi-year and depend on regional utilities—expect phased utilization, not 100% from day one (industry-standard practice echoed in partner communications). (AP/Reuters/OpenAI updates). ABC News+1
Immigration shock to hiring pipelines from the H-1B fee; watch for litigation, carve-outs, or adjustments. (White House; USCIS). The White House+1
Compliance note
This analysis is educational, not investment advice. Markets involve risk. For any statements touching on elections/policy, the tone here is strictly descriptive and source-driven to stay within platform rules.
References (APA)
American Broadcasting Company. (2025, September 23). OpenAI shows off Stargate AI data center in Texas and plans 5 more elsewhere with Oracle, SoftBank. ABC News. ABC News
Barron’s. (2025, September 24). Micron stock jumps after earnings beat. Why investors expect more good news. Barron's
Business Insider. (2025, September 25). Trump approved a $14 billion TikTok deal in an executive order, and employees have big questions. Business Insider
CoreWeave. (2025, September 25). CoreWeave expands agreement with OpenAI by up to $6.5B [Press release]. CoreWeave
GameSpot. (2025, September 27). ROG Xbox Ally X preorders in stock at Best Buy, sold out everywhere else. GameSpot
InfoWorld. (2025, September 26). From answer engine to infrastructure: Perplexity launches Search API for developers.InfoWorld
Internal Revenue Service. (2025, September). Clean vehicle tax credits. IRS
Kiplinger. (2025, September 3). How the EV tax credit works for 2025: Yes, it’s ending soon. Kiplinger
OpenAI. (2025, July 22). Stargate advances with 4.5 GW partnership with Oracle. OpenAI
OpenAI. (2025, September 24). OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites.OpenAI
Perplexity. (2025, September 25). Introducing the Perplexity Search API. Perplexity AI
Pure Xbox. (2025, September 26). The ROG Xbox Ally is rapidly selling out at retailers around the world. Pure Xbox
Reuters. (2025, July 22). OpenAI and Oracle deepen AI data center push with 4.5-gigawatt Stargate expansion. Reuters
Reuters. (2025, September 22). Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, linking two AI leaders. Reuters
Reuters. (2025, September 26). CoreWeave expands OpenAI pact with new $6.5 billion contract. Reuters
TechCrunch. (2025, September 24). Instagram now has 3 billion monthly active users. TechCrunch
The Verge. (2025, September 25). Instagram hits 3 billion monthly users. The Verge
U.S. White House. (2025, September 19). Restriction on entry of certain nonimmigrant workers [Presidential action]. The White House
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. (2025, September). H-1B FAQ (updated guidance). USCIS
Wall Street Journal. (2025, September 25). CoreWeave expands OpenAI agreement by $6.5 billion. The Wall Street Journal
Micron Technology, Inc. (2025, September 23). Micron reports results for the fourth quarter and full year [Press release]. Micron Technology
Awful Announcing. (2025, September 25). Netflix will reportedly stream Yankees–Giants 2026 MLB Opening Day matchup. Awful Announcing
Inkl. (2025, September 26). Netflix will exclusively stream MLB Opening Day 2026 game between Yankees and Giants.inkl
VICE. (2025, September 26). Microsoft hiked the price of the Xbox ROG Ally—It still sold out. VICE
Nvidia. (2025, September 22). OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 GW of NVIDIA systems[Newsroom]. NVIDIA Newsroom
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