How Ready Is Singapore for Nuclear Energy? A Fact-Checked, Policy-Neutral Deep Dive
How Ready Is Singapore for Nuclear Energy? A Fact-Checked, Policy-Neutral Deep Dive
Author: Zion Zhao Real Estate | ็ฎๅฎถ็คพๅฐ่ตต
As I have been saying over the years that due to the emergent of artificial intelligence, power will be the next commodity that the whole world will be heavily dependent upon. Renewal energy is always good, but ultimately I was convinced that nuclear power (in particular the Fourth-Generation Reactors, Small Modular Reactors and Nuclear Fusion instead of Nuclear Fission) is the "only" way out for now. Looking at how USA, China, Russia is competing for energy generation, it is a strong yet subtle hint that that is the next S-curve move after A.I and quantum computing is power generation; Nuclear Energy. Don't be surprised that there will be "friendly neighborhood SMRs" near you in the future!
Singapore has reopened the nuclear conversation in 2025. In his Budget speech, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the Government will study the potential deployment of nuclear power, with a particular focus on newer, smaller designs (small modular reactors, or SMRs). The move does not signal a decision to build a plant, but it does raise timely questions about safety, cost, capability and timelines in a dense, land-scarce city-state. CNA
1) Why nuclear is back on the table—and why now
Three hard constraints shape Singapore’s power puzzle:
Fuel mix reality. Natural gas generates roughly 92–95% of Singapore’s electricity; solar, waste-to-energy and biomass make up only a few percentage points. This heavy gas reliance exposes price and supply risks and caps decarbonisation progress. Economic Development Boardhome.emcsg.com
Land and resource limits. Rooftop and floating solar are expanding (e.g., the 60 MWp Tengeh Reservoir array), but Singapore lacks large tracts of windy deserts or rivers for big renewables. Imports are therefore crucial. Energy Market Authority
Regional integration strategy. EMA is now targeting around 6 GW of low-carbon electricity imports by 2035 (up from the earlier 4 GW)—potentially one-third of future demand—via projects in Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam and others. Nuclear is being studied as a complementary firm, low-carbon option alongside this imports-plus-solar pathway. Energy Market Authority+1
The Energy 2050 Committee (E2050) previously assessed that, if advanced nuclear technologies prove safe, reliable, and cost-effective, they could contribute a modest share of the 2050 mix. PM Wong’s 2025 signal is essentially to refresh that due-diligence with today’s technology and economics. snrsi.nus.edu.sg
2) Is nuclear “safe” enough for a city-state?
Track record and risk: When measured by deaths per terawatt-hour, nuclear ranks among the safest electricity sources, on par with wind and far safer than coal and oil. That reflects both stringent regulation and the rarity of severe accidents. Still, the consequences of a low-probability, high-impact event are uniquely serious—especially in a dense urban environment—so governance and culture matter as much as hardware. Energy Market Authority
Human factors matter. The official, independent inquiry into Fukushima called it a “profoundly man-made disaster,”citing regulatory, organisational and cultural failures—not merely the tsunami. Lessons learned: design for extreme external hazards, maintain independence of the regulator, and cultivate a strong safety culture from boardroom to control room. Those lessons would be non-negotiable in any Singapore assessment. NIRS
Performance and reliability. Globally, the average nuclear capacity factor has hovered above 80% for two decades (81.5% in 2023; ~83% reported for 2024), reflecting 24/7 firm output with very high utilisation. Such reliability is valuable for a grid facing fast-growing, around-the-clock loads (e.g., data centres, industry). world-nuclear.orgEnergy Institute
3) What about radioactive waste?
Volumes are small but stewardship is long-lived. Contrary to popular imagery, the physical volume of spent fuel from a single plant is modest—typically managed on-site for years in pools, then in dry casks, pending geological disposal. The challenge is not volume but time horizons, robust institutions, and keeping options open across generations. International practice (IAEA guidance) emphasises containment, monitoring, and a clear path to eventual deep geological disposal. Singapore has no designated repository; any exploration of sites would require extensive geotechnical study, public process and regional coordination. https://lazard.com
Jurong Rock Caverns ≠ nuclear waste site. The Jurong Rock Caverns store liquid hydrocarbons for the petrochemical sector. They are not licensed or designed for radioactive waste. Any suggestion otherwise is speculative and would demand wholly different safety, hydrogeological and regulatory analyses. JTC
4) Nuclear vs renewables: space, carbon and complementarity
Land footprint and energy density. Peer-reviewed meta-analyses show non-renewables (including nuclear) have orders-of-magnitude higher power density than most renewables; conversely, utility solar requires more land per MWh than nuclear but is modular and rapidly deployable on rooftops, reservoirs and brownfields. In a land-scarce city, this density advantage is material. IDEAS/RePEcEnergy Markets & Policy
Carbon performance. Over its full lifecycle, nuclear’s median emissions (~12 gCO₂e/kWh) are comparable to windand lower than utility solar medians, according to the IPCC. That positions nuclear as a zero/near-zero option for firm capacity alongside imported renewables. IAEA Publications
Bottom line: It’s not either/or. Solar (local), imports (regional), storage, demand response, and firm low-carbonoptions (potentially nuclear in the long run) each solve different parts of the reliability-decarbonisation triangle under Singapore’s constraints. Energy Market Authority
5) Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): what’s different, what’s real
Definition and concept. The IAEA defines SMRs as advanced reactors up to 300 MWe per module, factory-fabricated for faster builds and potential cost/schedule discipline. Designs range from light-water (closest to today’s reactors) to advanced concepts (sodium, gas, molten salt). Smaller cores mean less decay heat to manage and often more passive safety features. iaea.org
Status check (2025):
China’s ACP100 (Linglong One) connected to the grid in 2023—an important first for a land-based SMR. iaea.org
In contrast, the NuScale project in the U.S. lost its anchor customer and was terminated in 2023, underscoring unresolved economics and financing risks for first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects. Conclusion: engineering is advancing, but commercial readiness is uneven and context-dependent. Vaclav Smil
Siting implications for Singapore. In principle, an SMR’s smaller footprint and passive safety could widen siting options (e.g., co-location with industrial users for steam and process heat). In practice, any site—onshore or near-shore—would face rigorous hazard assessment, buffering, emergency planning, marine and airspace constraints, and public acceptance tests. No site is pre-identified today. Our World in Data
6) Costs and timelines: the FOAK/NOAK dilemma
Costs. International benchmarks (Lazard’s LCOE+ 2024–2025; IEA/NEA) show new-build nuclear remains capital-intensive and typically costlier per MWh than mature wind/solar (before system-integration adders), while existingnuclear fleets are relatively cheap to operate. FOAK SMRs promise factory repetition to cut costs, but proof at scale is pending. For Singapore, with no fleet effects and very high standards, early units would likely be expensive until learning curves kick in—if they do. https://lazard.comNuclear Energy Agency (NEA)
Timelines. The IAEA’s Milestones Approach—covering policy, legal, regulatory, human capital, waste, financing and supply chains—typically spans a decade or more before first concrete, even for countries with strong institutions. Construction of first units can add another 7–10 years, especially for FOAK designs. Realistically, even with an aggressive start in 2025, Singapore would be looking at late-2030s to 2040s for any first-of-kind project—if the Government decides to proceed and if technology, safety and economics check out. The E2050 report’s “up to ~10% by 2050” is thus a conditional, scenario-based possibility, not a target. Our World in Datasnrsi.nus.edu.sg
7) Capabilities and governance: what Singapore would need to stand up
Regulatory capacity. Singapore has radiation safety regulation, but no power-reactor regulator or licensing framework. A nuclear option would require a truly independent regulator, comprehensive laws (site licensing through decommissioning), emergency preparedness, international conventions adherence, and a strong nuclear security posture. The IAEA framework is the starting point. Our World in Data
Human capital. Singapore’s universities and agencies (e.g., earlier nuclear safety initiatives at NUS) provide a base, but an operational workforce (reactor operators, regulators, inspectors, radiochemists, fuel and waste specialists) typically needs sustained pipelines and years of hands-on experience—often through overseas placements and joint programmes with established nuclear countries. Energy Market Authority
System integration. Nuclear would need to fit into a system that is already pivoting to imports, storage, and demand-side management, while maintaining diversity of supply and price resilience. The case rests not just on levelised costs but on system value (firm, low-carbon capacity during long gaps in sun/wind and import contingencies). Energy Market Authority
8) A pragmatic decision framework for Singapore (2025–2035)
No-regrets moves now:
Deepen regional imports to 6 GW by 2035 with strong grid codes and verification of carbon integrity.
Max out solar on rooftops and water, keep adding storage and flexible demand. Energy Market Authority+1
Serious, but staged, nuclear due-diligence:
Launch an IAEA-aligned pre-feasibility (technology neutral), build a shadow regulator, and commence skills pipelines (incl. overseas secondments).
Track SMR demonstrations (ACP100, BWRX-300, etc.) and only shortlist designs with multi-country licensing progress and credible cost evidence. iaea.org+1
Transparent siting and engagement:
Begin screening studies (geotechnical, seismic, marine, evacuation logistics), while explicitly ruling out speculative notions (e.g., Jurong Rock Caverns for waste).
Run public consultations early; social licence is pivotal. JTC
Gatekeeping milestones:
Proceed to a site-specific feasibility only if a design clears safety, cost, supply-chain and regulatory gates—and if it adds system value above alternatives (e.g., more imports + grid-scale storage). Our World in Data
9) Bottom line
Nuclear energy can be made very safe by design and culture; it is firm and near-zero-carbon, and its land footprint fits Singapore’s spatial realities. But it is slow to stand up, institution-heavy, and capital-intensive—especially for a first plant in a new-to-nuclear country. Singapore’s wisest path is to keep options open: push imports, storage and solar now, build regulatory and human-capital foundations, and evaluate specific SMR designs only when their real-world costs and licensing track records are clearer. That is exactly what a prudent, capability-first study—signalled in 2025—should deliver. CNAEnergy Market Authority
Disclaimer
This analysis is educational and policy-neutral. It does not advocate for or against any specific vendor, site, or project, and it does not offer investment or financial advice. All data are from publicly available, reputable sources as cited.
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References (APA)
CNA. (2025, March 3). Budget 2025: S’pore studying nuclear power, working with U.S. to explore small modular reactors. https://www.channelnewsasia.com CNA
Energy Market Authority (EMA). (2024). Energy 2050 Committee Report (overview page). https://www.ema.gov.sgsnrsi.nus.edu.sg
Energy Market Authority (EMA). (2025, March 27). Fuel mix for electricity generation. https://www.ema.gov.sgEnergy Market Authority
Energy Market Authority (EMA). (2024, Oct 22). Regional power grids: Our target is to import around 6 GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035. https://www.ema.gov.sg Energy Market Authority
Energy Market Authority (EMA). (2024). Media releases on electricity imports & conditional approvals. https://www.ema.gov.sg Energy Market Authority
Energy Market Company (EMC). (2024, Nov 13). NEMS Market Report 2024. https://www.home.emcsg.comhome.emcsg.com
IPCC. (2022). AR6 WGIII—Mitigation of Climate Change (lifecycle emissions of power generation). https://www.ipcc.ch IAEA Publications
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2023, Sept 13). What are small modular reactors (SMRs)?https://www.iaea.org iaea.org
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2015/2018). Milestones in the development of a national infrastructure for nuclear power (NG-G-3.1 Rev.1). https://www.iaea.org Our World in Data
JTC. (n.d.). Jurong Rock Caverns. https://www.jtc.gov.sg JTC
Our World in Data. (n.d.). What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy? https://ourworldindata.org Energy Market Authority
PUB & Sembcorp. (2021). Tengeh Reservoir floating solar farm. https://www.sembcorp.com Energy Market Authority
van Zalk, J., & Behrens, P. (2018). The spatial extent of renewable and non-renewable power generation: A review and meta-analysis of power densities. Energy Policy, 123, 83–91. https://ideas.repec.org IDEAS/RePEc
World Nuclear Association. (2024). World Nuclear Performance Report 2024 (capacity factors, output). https://world-nuclear.org world-nuclear.org
World Nuclear Association. (n.d.). Radioactive waste management. https://world-nuclear.org https://lazard.com
World Nuclear News. (2023, Dec 5). China connects ACP100 SMR to grid. https://world-nuclear-news.org iaea.org
World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR). (2024). NuScale project cancellation and SMR status. https://www.worldnuclearreport.org Vaclav Smil
Lazard. (2025). Levelized Cost of Energy+ (Version 2025). https://www.lazard.com https://lazard.com
EDB. (2024, Jan 4). What could Singapore’s energy mix look like in 2035? https://www.edb.gov.sg Economic Development Board
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