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“Is It Too Late?” Investing Through Euphoria Without Losing Your Head

“Is It Too Late?” Investing Through Euphoria Without Losing Your Head

Author: Zion Zhao Real Estate | ็‹ฎๅฎถ็คพๅฐ่ตต 





As always, not financial advice, please do your own due diligence!

Executive Summary (for busy readers)

  • Bull and bear markets are defined by ±20% moves from prior trough/peak, but labels matter less than behavior, discipline, and time in the market. (Hartford Funds; Schwab). Hartford FundsSchwab Brokerage

  • All-time highs are normal, not rare—since 1950, the U.S. equity market has logged ~1,250 record closes (~16 per year). Sitting out “because it’s at a high” is usually costly. (RBC Global Asset Management). RBC Global Asset Management

  • Over a century of data: bull markets have been larger and longer than bear markets on average (e.g., bulls +~113% over ~2.7 years vs. bears −~35% over ~10 months). (Ned Davis Research via Hartford Funds). Hartford Funds+1

  • The longest bull on record ran ~12.3 years (1987–2000) and rose ~582%; the second-longest (2009–2020)climbed ~400%. (Ned Davis Research via Hartford Funds). Hartford Funds

  • Most of the market’s “best days” cluster around its worst days; missing even 10 best days over 20 years can cut returns roughly in half—a key reason timing is so hard. (J.P. Morgan Asset Management). JPMorganMotley Fool Wealth Management

  • Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) builds discipline and reduces regret; lump-sum historically outperforms about two-thirds of the time—but DCA still beats staying in cash. (Vanguard Research). VanguardVanguard

  • “Supercharging” DCA by allocating more on dips is essentially Value Averaging (Edleson), a rules-based method to lower cost basis—powerful if budgeted prudently. (Edleson; AAII). Wileyvalueaveraging.ca

1) What Counts as a Bull or Bear—and Why Labels Can Mislead

A bull market is typically declared when a broad index (e.g., S&P 500) rises 20%+ from its most recent closing low; a bear market is a 20%+ decline from the latest high. This is convention—not law—but it anchors headlines and investor emotions. (Hartford Funds; Charles Schwab). Hartford FundsSchwab Brokerage

Reality check: These thresholds are descriptive, not predictive. They don’t tell you when to exit or re-enter; they simply describe what already happened.

2) Where We Are Now (2025): Highs Happen Frequently

Investors DM the same question in late-cycle periods: “How long can this go on?” A useful starting point is to accept record highs as a feature of long-term investing, not a bug. Since 1950, the broad U.S. market has clocked ~1,250 all-time highs, roughly 16 per year on average. (RBC Global Asset Management). RBC Global Asset Management

Even 2025 continues that pattern: the S&P 500 notched its 20th all-time high of the year in August, reinforcing that “new highs” are common in ongoing uptrends. (S&P Dow Jones Indices dashboard). S&P Global

Implication: Avoiding the market at highs often means avoiding the market, full stop.

3) Bull vs. Bear: The Historical Odds

Over nearly a century of U.S. data, researchers catalog ~27 bull markets since 1928. The average bull produced about +113–115% over ~2.7 years, while the average bear saw about −35% over ~10 months. (Ned Davis Research, summarized by Hartford Funds). Hartford Funds+1

Two other facts matter for “should I wait?” thinking:

  • The first half of a bull outperforms the second half in ~74% of cases—most of the “meat” tends to get served early. (Ned Davis Research via Hartford Funds). Hartford Funds

  • The longest and second-longest bulls (1987–2000; 2009–2020) ran ~12.3 years (+~582%) and ~11 years(+~400%) respectively. Timing a “top” across such spans is not a skill; it’s a wish. (Ned Davis Research via Hartford Funds; Kiplinger overview). Hartford FundsKiplinger

4) Why Market Timing So Often Backfires

Two empirical realities make sideline-sitting expensive:

  1. Record Highs ≠ Imminent Collapse. New highs occur frequently, as shown above. (RBC GAM). RBC Global Asset Management

  2. Best Days Cluster Around Worst Days. Over long horizons, many of the best up-days occur during bear markets or right after them. J.P. Morgan shows that missing just the 10 best days over 20 years can halve the ending value; seven of those “best days” often fall within ~two weeks of the worst days—precisely when timing feels hardest. (J.P. Morgan Asset Management). JPMorgan+1

Bottom line: Avoiding drawdowns by “waiting for the pullback” often morphs into missing the rebound, mathematically crippling compounding.

5) The Behavioral Minefield (New & Experienced Investors Alike)

  • Overconfidence & the Dunning–Kruger Effect. Novices in long bull runs can mistake luck for skill. The classic paper “Unskilled and Unaware of It” documents systematic overestimation among low-skill performers. (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). University of Michigan LSA Sites

  • Herd Behavior / Informational Cascades. Investors often mimic others even when it conflicts with private information—fueling manias and “crowded trades.” (Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer & Welch). SNAPFrank Baumgartner

  • Overtrading Penalty. Retail investors who trade more tend to underperform markedly—documented in a landmark study of 66,000 brokerage accounts. (Barber & Odean, 2000). Haas School of Business

  • Cycle Psychology is Real. The familiar arc from hope → euphoria → despair → disbelief → hope recurs across centuries of bubbles (e.g., Rodrigue’s schema). (Rodrigue). Transport Geography

These aren’t memes; they’re repeatable human patterns that line up suspiciously well with the boom-bust cadence of markets.

6) A Pragmatic Playbook for Investing at/near Highs

A) Decide on Process, Not Prediction

  • Diversify broadly (e.g., across sectors/regions) and size positions by risk tolerance rather than headlines. (S&P DJI overview; J.P. Morgan long-term principles). S&P GlobalJPMorgan

  • Accept that no one knows where we sit on the euphoria curve in real time; that’s only obvious after the fact.

B) Choose a Funding Method You Can Stick With

  • Lump-Sum (LSI) historically beats DCA roughly 2/3 of the time because you’re invested earlier in an upward-drifting market. (Vanguard Research). VanguardVanguard

  • DCA still shines on behavioral grounds: it reduces regret, builds habit, and beats holding cash most of the time. (Vanguard Research). Vanguard

  • If you’re sitting on a windfall and feel “jitters,” a hybrid—e.g., invest ⅓ now, ⅔ over 6–12 months—can capture much of LSI’s edge while calming nerves. (Vanguard framing). static.twentyoverten.com

C) “Supercharge” DCA—The Evidence-Based Way

What you called “doubling down on dips” has an academic cousin called Value Averaging (VA). Instead of investing a fixed amount each period, VA sets a target portfolio value path and invests more when prices fall/less when they rise, automatically lowering average cost without forecasting. (Edleson; AAII). Wileyvalueaveraging.ca

Guardrails to keep it prudent:

  • Budget the max deployable cash in advance (e.g., a set “dry-powder” sleeve), so “buy more on dips” doesn’t morph into risk creep. (Vanguard on DCA/LSI trade-offs). Vanguard

  • Use objective triggers (e.g., −10% from 52-week high for the index; deeper tranches at −20%, −30%). Pre-commitment beats emotion. (Hartford/NDR stats on typical bear magnitudes help calibrate). Hartford Funds

  • Rebalance periodically—locking in relative gains and preventing single-name concentration (especially in momentum leaders). (J.P. Morgan principles). JPMorgan

D) Risk-Control Checklist (works in bulls and bears)

  • Emergency fund (3–6 months expenses) and no high-interest debt before risk assets.

  • Position sizing: cap single-stock exposure; prefer broad ETFs for core.

  • Time horizon: if funds are needed <3–5 years, use safer sleeves (cash/short-duration).

  • Rules for trimming: pre-define ranges (e.g., trim back to target weights after +25–50% relative outperformance) to avoid top-ticking.

  • Tax awareness: harvest losses opportunistically; avoid short-term gains when possible.

7) Fact-Checking the Common Claims You Hear

  • “All-time highs mean a crash is imminent.” Fact check: False. New highs occur frequently along the uptrend path (~16 per year since 1950). RBC Global Asset Management

  • “Bear markets last for years.” Fact check: On average, bears have been short (≈ 10 months, ~−35%), while bulls are longer and larger. Hartford Funds

  • “I’ll just get out and wait for the correction.” Fact check: Missing the market’s 10 best days can halve long-run returns; best days typically arrive near worst days, when you’re least likely to be invested. JPMorgan+1

  • “Doubling down on dips is just gambling.” Fact check: Done systematically (Value Averaging), it’s a documented rules-based approach that can lower cost basis—if properly budgeted. Wileyvalueaveraging.ca

  • “Active trading beats buy-and-hold.” Fact check: Households that trade most underperform significantly (−6–7%/yr vs. market in the seminal data). Haas School of Business

8) What This Means for You—New and Veteran Investors

  • If you’re new: Your No. 1 risk is overconfidence. Respect uncertainty, automate contributions (DCA/VA), and learn the difference between process and prediction. (Kruger & Dunning; Vanguard). University of Michigan LSA SitesVanguard

  • If you’re experienced: Your No. 1 risk is over-optimization—“I’ll top-tick the cycle.” History, statistics, and clustering of best days argue for staying invested with pre-agreed rules for adds/trims. (J.P. Morgan; NDR/Hartford). JPMorganHartford Funds

9) A Simple, Actionable Framework You Can Use Tomorrow

  1. Pick your core vehicle (e.g., low-cost S&P 500 ETF for core; add global/SMID as needed). (S&P DJI overview). S&P Global

  2. Choose funding method:

    • Have a lump sum? Consider LSI (if risk-tolerant) or LSI+staged DCA over 6–12 months. (Vanguard). Vanguard

    • Ongoing income? Automate DCA on payday.

  3. Optionally layer VA: Pre-fund a “dip sleeve” and deploy more at −10/−20% index drawdowns, less near highs. (Edleson). Wiley

  4. Rebalance to targets (semiannual/annual). (J.P. Morgan principles). JPMorgan

  5. Behaviors to avoid: chasing meme surges; overconcentration; levered FOMO; social-media-driven trades without a thesis. (Barber & Odean; Bikhchandani et al.). Haas School of BusinessSNAP

10) Final Word

Always remember the market can stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent. You don’t need a time machine to build wealth—you need a repeatable process that keeps you invested through the emotionally hardest periods. History suggests the odds favor patience: bulls have outweighed bears in both magnitudeand duration, and record highs happen all the time. Set your rules now, automate good behavior, and let compounding do the heavy lifting. (RBC; Hartford/NDR; J.P. Morgan). RBC Global Asset ManagementHartford FundsJPMorgan

Important Notes / ๅ…่ดฃๅฃฐๆ˜Ž

  • Educational content only; not financial advice, solicitation, or recommendation to buy/sell any security. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance ≠ future results.

  • ่ฏท่ฏป่€…่‡ช่กŒๅˆคๆ–ญๅนถๅ’จ่ฏขๅˆๆ ผ็š„ไธ“ไธšๆŒ็‰Œ้กพ้—ฎ；ๆœฌๆ–‡ไธๆž„ๆˆไธช่‚กๅทๅฌๆˆ–ไธๅฝ“ๅผ•ๅฏผ

Invest Calmly Through Euphoria—With a Cross-Asset Guide You Can Trust

I’m Zion Zhao, a Singapore-based real estate professional with a cross-asset lens—grounded in macroeconomics, global affairs, and portfolio construction. Every day, I dedicate hours to research and writing to help clients navigate markets thoughtfully—not just in property, but also across equities and digital assets—so your decisions are data-driven, diversified, and durable.

Why work with me (in one read):

  • Calm, cycle-aware strategy — grounded in macroeconomics as shown in “Is It Too Late? Investing Through Euphoria Without Losing Your Head.” I focus on process over prediction, so you avoid costly timing mistakes and stay invested with discipline.

  • Cross-asset expertise, one point of accountability — I translate macro signals into actionable property strategies, while speaking your language on stocks, crypto, and policy risk.

  • Singapore Land & Business Law fluency — meticulous with OTPs, LOAs, tenancy clauses, and compliance so your transactions are smooth and protected.

  • SAF leadership mindset — as an Officer Commanding (Captain), I bring professional rigor, planning, and accountability to every mandate.

  • Diligence you can feel — I study markets daily and author long-form essays so you receive clear, fact-checked insights—not noise.

Why include Singapore real estate in a modern portfolio:

  • Lower volatility, real utility — property adds a stabilising core to portfolios that also hold equities/crypto.

  • Dual engine of return — potential capital appreciation plus rental yield as a dividend-like income stream.

  • Policy clarity & infrastructure depth — Singapore’s pro-business environment, connectivity, and rule of law support long-term asset resilience.

  • Tailored to your goals — from UHNWs and family offices to international parents (้™ช่ฏปๅฎถ้•ฟ) and global professionals, I structure plans for residency, education, or capital preservation.

What I’ll do for you:

  • Goal-first portfolio design — align real estate with your risk budget, investment horizon, and cash-flow needs.

  • Acquisition to exit, end-to-end — curation, site & floor-plan analysis, price discovery, negotiation, legal coordination, tenancy and asset management.

  • Macro-to-micro briefings — translate rates, inflation, and policy into clear buy/hold/lease actions.

  • Transparent reporting — ongoing performance, rental yield tracking, and refinance/exit reviews.

Let’s build your calm, compounding plan—today

  • Message me/Book a consult/Request my latest essay & DCA/Value-Averaging checklist: 8884 4623 



In-Text Citations (APA-style)

  • Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading is hazardous to your wealth. Journal of Finance, 55(2), 773–806. Haas School of Business

  • Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992–1026. SNAP

  • Edleson, M. E. (2007/1993). Value Averaging. Wiley. Wiley

  • Hartford Funds / Ned Davis Research. (2024–2025). 10 Things You Should Know About Bull/Bear Markets.Hartford Funds+1

  • J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2025). Guide to Retirement; and related materials on “best/worst days” clustering. JPMorgan

  • Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. University of Michigan LSA Sites

  • RBC Global Asset Management. (n.d.). Investing at all-time highs. RBC Global Asset Management

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices. (2025). S&P 500® Index dashboard. S&P Global

  • Schwab. (2024). Bull vs. Bear: Understanding market phases. Schwab Brokerage

  • Vanguard Research. (2012/2023, re-issued 2023/2022). Cost averaging: Invest now or hold cash?; Lump-sum vs. cost averaging. VanguardVanguard

  • Rodrigue, J.-P. (n.d.). Stages in a Bubble. Transport Geography

References (APA)

Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors. The Journal of Finance, 55(2), 773–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226 Haas School of Business

Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992–1026. https://doi.org/10.1086/261849 SNAP

Edleson, M. E. (2007). Value averaging: The safe and easy strategy for higher investment returns (Updated ed.). Wiley. (Original work published 1993). Wiley

Hartford Funds. (2025). 10 things you should know about bear markets. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html Hartford Funds

Hartford Funds. (2024). 10 things you should know about bull markets. (Data source: Ned Davis Research, 1/24). https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/investing-for-growth/10-things-you-should-know-about-bull-markets.html Hartford Funds

J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2025). Guide to Retirement (U.S.). https://am.jpmorgan.com/global/en/insights/retirement-insights/guide-to-retirement-us.pdf JPMorgan

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121 University of Michigan LSA Sites

RBC Global Asset Management. (n.d.). Investing at all-time highs. https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/learn-plan/investment-basics/investing-at-all-time-highs/detail RBC Global Asset Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices. (2025). Index dashboard: S&P 500® factor indices (notes 2025 ATHs). https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/performance-reports/dashboard-sp-500-factor.pdf S&P Global

Schwab. (2024). Bull vs. bear: Understanding market phases. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/bull-vs-bear-understanding-market-phases Schwab Brokerage

Vanguard. (2022). Cost averaging: Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/cost_averaging_invest_now_or_temporarily_hold_your_cash.pdf Vanguard

Vanguard. (2023). Lump-sum investing versus cost averaging: Which is better? https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/lump-sum-investing-versus-cost-averaging-which-is-better Vanguard

Rodrigue, J.-P. (n.d.). Stages in a bubble. https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter3/transportation-and-economic-development/bubble-stages/ Transport Geography

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